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HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON NOV 05 2001
 
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH UNDERESTIMATED THE INTENSITY OF 
NOEL THIS MORNING...REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.  THE CONVECTION...WHICH 
WAS REASONABLY SYMMETRIC EARLIER...IS NOW LIMITED LARGELY TO THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  I WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AND HOLD NOEL AS A 
HURRICANE FOR NOW BUT SUSPECT THAT IT IS WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL 
STORM.  WESTERLY SHEAR IS INCREASING AND NOEL WILL BE MOVING OVER 
COLD WATER SOON SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. 
 
NOEL IS MOVING AT 360/9 AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.  NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS
GENERAL PATH WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS A SEPARATE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE STRENGTHENS SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
BOTH THE AVN AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS LOSE NOEL WITHIN 24 HOURS AS 
BAROCLINIC ENERGY GETS FOCUSSED ELSEWHERE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED 
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND WITH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE 
MICHELLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF THE AVN AND 
UKMET SOLUTIONS...AND PROBABLY HANGS ON TO A CIRCULATION LONGER THAN 
THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO.

THERE IS LIKELY TO BE LITTLE WIND ON THE WEST SIDE OF NOEL AS IT 
PASSES NEWFOUNDLAND.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 39.3N  50.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 40.8N  50.3W    60 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 46.0N  50.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     07/0600Z 51.5N  51.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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