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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2001
 
MICHELLE IS LOOKING LESS LIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MORE LIKE AN 
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE 
HUNTER AIRCRAFT AT 06/0520Z FOUND PEAK WINDS OF 106 KT IN THE 
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...SURROUNDED BY A LONG STRETCH OF 100+ KT WINDS. 
MICHELLE ALSO HAS MAINTAINED A WARM-CORE STRUCTURE...SO IT IS BEING 
KEPT AS A HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 
OBSERVED IN STRATIFORM CLOUDS OR IN THE CLEAR...A REDUCTION FACTOR 
OF 70 PERCENT WAS USED...INSTEAD OF THE USUAL 90 PERCENT. THE NEXT 
RECON FLIGHT WILL BE AT 18Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/18.  MICHELLE HAS REMAINED ON TRACK...SO 
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS GETTING STRETCHED 
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP MICHELLE MOVING IN A 
GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION...LIKE THE AVN IS INDICATING... 
RATHER THAN LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH LIKE THE REST OF 
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST 
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REMAINS CLOSE TO 
THE AVN MODEL...WHICH IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE 
SUITE.

DRY AIR IS PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS 
HAS DISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
CENTER.  AS A RESULT...MICHELLE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  EVEN THOUGH MICHELLE IS LOOKING 
MORE FRONTAL-LIKE...BAROCLINIC EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO 
KEEP THE INTENSITY UP LONGER THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH SHEARED AND 
CONVECTION-FREE TROPICAL CYCLONES...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST.  

THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST INCREASED OUT TO 120 
NM...WHILE IT REMAINED CLOSE IN AT AROUND 45 NM TO THE NORTHWEST. 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALSO EXTENDED OUTWARD MORE THAN 100 NM IN ALL 
DIRECTIONS.  THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AND WERE BASED 
ON DIFFERENT FLIGHT-LEVEL REDUCTION FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITHIN AND 
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FOR THE VARIOUS QUADRANTS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 27.2N  71.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N  68.5W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     07/0600Z 29.6N  63.6W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     07/1800Z 31.9N  58.7W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     08/0600Z 34.5N  54.2W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     09/0600Z 40.0N  44.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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