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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON NOV 05 2001

EVEN THOUGH MICHELLE DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY TROPICAL ON SATELLITE 
IMAGES AT THIS TIME...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND 99 KNOTS AT THE 
850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL.  SINCE THE SYSTEM LACKS DEEP CONVECTION 
ANYWHERE NEAR ITS CENTER...WE WILL ASSUME THAT THE FLIGHT LEVEL TO 
SURFACE REDUCTION IS SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN NORMAL AND ASSIGN A 
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS.  THIS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS AN 
ADJUSTMENT TO THE EARLIER INTENSITY ESTIMATES...RATHER THAN ACTUAL 
STRENGTHENING.  WITH ITS EXTREMELY BROAD WIND FIELD...AND THE CLOUD 
PATTERN RESEMBLING THAT OF A FRONTAL WAVE...MICHELLE HAS ALREADY 
TAKEN ON SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  HOWEVER THE AIRCRAFT 
DATA SHOWED A 9 DEG C TEMPERATURE RISE IN THE CENTER AT 700 MB.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM LOSING ALL TROPICAL 
CHARACTERISTICS IN 24 HOURS...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INVOLVED 
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.

INITIAL MOTION...060/18...IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM BEFORE.  
MICHELLE...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT...IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP 
FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES WITH THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE 500 MB 
TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BLEND OF THE AVN...U.K. MET OFFICE...AND 
NOGAPS FORECASTS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 26.5N  73.8W    75 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 27.5N  70.7W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     07/0000Z 29.0N  66.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     07/1200Z 31.0N  61.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     08/0000Z 33.5N  56.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     09/0000Z 39.0N  47.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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