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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON NOV 05 2001
EVEN THOUGH MICHELLE DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY TROPICAL ON SATELLITE
IMAGES AT THIS TIME...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND 99 KNOTS AT THE
850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL. SINCE THE SYSTEM LACKS DEEP CONVECTION
ANYWHERE NEAR ITS CENTER...WE WILL ASSUME THAT THE FLIGHT LEVEL TO
SURFACE REDUCTION IS SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN NORMAL AND ASSIGN A
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE EARLIER INTENSITY ESTIMATES...RATHER THAN ACTUAL
STRENGTHENING. WITH ITS EXTREMELY BROAD WIND FIELD...AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN RESEMBLING THAT OF A FRONTAL WAVE...MICHELLE HAS ALREADY
TAKEN ON SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER THE AIRCRAFT
DATA SHOWED A 9 DEG C TEMPERATURE RISE IN THE CENTER AT 700 MB. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM LOSING ALL TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN 24 HOURS...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INVOLVED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
INITIAL MOTION...060/18...IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM BEFORE.
MICHELLE...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT...IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP
FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES WITH THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE 500 MB
TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BLEND OF THE AVN...U.K. MET OFFICE...AND
NOGAPS FORECASTS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 26.5N 73.8W 75 KTS
12HR VT 06/1200Z 27.5N 70.7W 65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 07/0000Z 29.0N 66.0W 60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 07/1200Z 31.0N 61.0W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 08/0000Z 33.5N 56.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 09/0000Z 39.0N 47.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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