[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON NOV 05 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/18. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO 
REMAINS THE SAME.  THE AVIATION MODEL MOVES THE LOW-LEVEL 
CURCULATION EASTWARD WHILE THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET ACCELERATE 
THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC TO COMBINE WITH A 
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS 
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MODELS BUT IS INFLUENCED SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE 
AVIATION MODEL.

THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASING VERY SLOWLY EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS 
DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CONVECTION AND WINDS HAVE SPREAD OUT 
AS MICHELLE BEGINS TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE 
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS FOR VERY SLOW WEAKENING AS EXTRATROPICAL 
ENERGY MAY KEEP THE WIND SPEEDS UP DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 25.9N  75.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 27.2N  72.8W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     06/1800Z 28.3N  68.9W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     07/0600Z 29.5N  64.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     07/1800Z 31.0N  60.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     08/1800Z 36.0N  52.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

 
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