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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON NOV 05 2001
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/18. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO
REMAINS THE SAME. THE AVIATION MODEL MOVES THE LOW-LEVEL
CURCULATION EASTWARD WHILE THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC TO COMBINE WITH A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MODELS BUT IS INFLUENCED SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE
AVIATION MODEL.
THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASING VERY SLOWLY EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS
DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION AND WINDS HAVE SPREAD OUT
AS MICHELLE BEGINS TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS FOR VERY SLOW WEAKENING AS EXTRATROPICAL
ENERGY MAY KEEP THE WIND SPEEDS UP DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 25.9N 75.4W 65 KTS
12HR VT 06/0600Z 27.2N 72.8W 60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 06/1800Z 28.3N 68.9W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 07/0600Z 29.5N 64.5W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 07/1800Z 31.0N 60.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/1800Z 36.0N 52.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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Problems?