[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON NOV 05 2001
 
THE LAST REPORT FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT...ALONG WITH RADAR AND 
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT MICHELLE IS CONTINUING TO 
WEAKEN WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS 
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY 
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICNAT 
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  ALL OF THE 
GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE AVN MODEL...AND MOST OF THE NHC 
FORECAST GUIDANCE AGREE ON MICHELLE CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE 
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TOWARD 
BERMUDA.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO 
DIG SOUTHWARD WHILE SHIFTLY STEADILY EASTWARD.  THIS FLOW PATTERN 
SHOULD CAUSE MICHELLE TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND 
WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE UKMET-GFDL-NOGAPS 
CONSENSUS. THE AVN MODEL...WHICH HAS DONE AN OUTSTANDING JOB WITH 
MICHELLE THUS FAR...APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND SPLIT THE SYSTEM INTO TWO 
SEPARATE ENTITIES AND TAKES THE CYCLONE DUE EAST AFTER PASSING OVER
ANDROS ISLAND. HOWEVER...THE AVN FORECAST SEEMS UNREASONABLE AT THIS 
TIME AND LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THIS SOLUTION.
 
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. 
THE GFDL ACTUALLY RE-STRENGTHENS MICHELLE TO 100 KT IN 24 HOURS... 
BUT THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR 
ACROSS THE CYCLONE. INSTEAD...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS 
FOLLOWED...EXCEPT THAT IT DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN 60 HOURS. WE 
ANTICIPATE THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR INSTEAD.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 23.5N  79.4W    85 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 24.9N  77.6W    80 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z 26.5N  74.1W    75 KTS
36HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N  70.1W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     07/0600Z 30.2N  65.4W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     08/0600Z 38.5N  55.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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