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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2001

REPORTS FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT...RADAR OBSERVATIONS...AND SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER 
CENTRAL CUBA.  MICHELLE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WEAKENED BELOW CAT. 3 
INTENSITY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND.  IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT 
THE HURRICANE WILL RE-STRENGTHEN MUCH EVEN WHEN IT EMERGES OVER 
WATER...BECAUSE OF STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  ALTHOUGH 
WEAKENING IS PREDICTED DUE TO THE MORE HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC 
ENVIRONMENT...WE STILL THINK THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE CAT. 2 INTENSITY 
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL 
INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT WEAKEN MICHELLE AS RAPIDLY AS THE SHIPS 
GUIDANCE SINCE WE ARE ASSUMING THAT IT WILL BE CONVERTING INTO A 
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.  

THE HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A DEEP-LAYER 
TROUGH THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD.  
MICHELLE IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 
MODEL CONSENSUS AND ESPECIALLY THE AVN...WHICH HAS DONE AN 
OUTSTANDING JOB WITH MICHELLE...TO SAY THE LEAST.

WITH THE HURRICANE STAYING ON TRACK...THE STATUS OF WARNINGS OVER 
SOUTHERN FLORIDA REMAINS UNCHANGED.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA OVER SOUTHEAST 
FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 22.9N  80.4W    95 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z 24.2N  78.9W    90 KTS
24HR VT     06/0000Z 25.8N  76.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     06/1200Z 27.5N  72.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     07/0000Z 29.0N  68.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     08/0000Z 35.5N  57.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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