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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2001
 
MICHELLE HAS BEEN CLOSELY MONITORED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
AND BY EXCELLENT REPORTS FROM CUBAN RADARS.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN EITHER MOTION OR INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE.
THE MAXIMUM WIND REPORTED BY THE PLANE WAS 133 KNOTS AT 700 MB WITH
A RECENTLY OBSERVED PRESSURE OF 949 MB.  CAYO LARGO LOCATED SOUTH OF
CENTRAL CUBA...EXPERIENCED THE CALM WINDS OF THE EYE AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 951 MB.
 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS.  THE HURICANE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BEYOND 48 HOURS IT SHOULD BECOME A LARGE AND
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
MICHELLE IS ALREADY EMBBEDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CUBA
TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY MONDAY.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
NCEP AVN GLOBAL MODEL.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 22.3N  81.3W   115 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 23.6N  80.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 25.8N  76.5W    85 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 28.0N  71.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     06/1800Z 31.5N  65.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     07/1800Z 43.0N  53.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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