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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT NOV 03 2001
 
A RECENT USAF RECON FLIGHT REPORTS 933 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A 
124-KNOT GPS DROPSONDE WIND AT 925 MB IN THE EYEWALL.  OTHERWISE 
RECON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND THE DROPSONDE BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN WIND 
DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT 115 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 
115 KNOTS.  WITH AN ESTIMATED 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE 
HURRICANE...THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL 
STRENGTHENING.  BUT AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS...AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN 
THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND 
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/03.  THE GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT.  
THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE HURRICANE OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 72 
HOURS.  THE AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS TURN THE HURRICANE 
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND KEEP THE CENTER SOUTH OF FLORIDA.  THE NOGAPS 
HAS MICHELLE MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR 72 
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE ABOVE 
MODELS...AND KEEPS THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA.  ONLY A 
SLIGHT DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING THE CENTER OVER 
SOUTH FLORIDA.  BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN 
THE U.S. WARNINGS...BUT THEY COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER 
TONIGHT.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 19.6N  84.1W   115 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 20.2N  84.0W   120 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 21.7N  83.0W   115 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 23.1N  81.4W   110 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 24.2N  79.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     06/1800Z 29.0N  71.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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