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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI NOV 02 2001
 
RECON DATA INDICATE THAT MICHELLE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING.  FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS PEAKED AT 108 KNOTS AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO
957 MB ABOUT 2330Z.  SINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND THE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 6.0
AND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  THIS MEANS THAT WINDS COULD BE AS HIGH
AS 100 TO 115 KNOTS.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME UNTIL A RECON MEASURES THE WINDS IN A FEW HOURS.  CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR MICHELLE TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES CUBA...BUT SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS
THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR.  BY THEN...MICHELLE WILL
LIKELY BE OVER THE BAHAMAS.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 5 KNOTS.  BECAUSE THE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...MICHELLE SHOULD
CONTINUE ON A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE VERY
CLOSE TO THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...AN AREA WHERE
HISTORICALLY THE STORM SURGE HAS BEEN VERY HIGH.

THEREAFTER...MICHELLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK...WHICH IS POSSIBLE...WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE NCEP GLOBAL AVN MODEL WHICH
HAS BEEN OUTSTANDING THIS SEASON.  THE RELIABLE GFDL MODEL KEEPS THE
HURRICANE ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WHICH IS A MORE DANGEROUS
SCENARIO FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 18.8N  84.0W    95 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 19.7N  84.2W   105 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N  84.0W   110 KTS
36HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N  83.5W   110 KTS
48HR VT     05/0000Z 23.0N  82.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     06/0000Z 26.0N  75.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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