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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI NOV 02 2001
 
EVEN THOUGH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE NOT QUITE THERE YET... 
MICHELLE WAS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE EARLIER THIS MORNING BASED ON 
TWO DROPWINDSONDE SURFACE WIND REPORTS OF 69 KT AND A THIRD OF 63 
KT.  MICHELLE IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A MORE CLASSICAL CIRCULAR 
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EVIDENCE OF SHEAR IS 
DIMINISHING.  FOR THE FIRST TIME...ALL 5 OF THE STATISTICAL 
PREDICTORS FROM THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISIONS EXPERIMENTAL RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION MODEL HAVE BEEN SATISFIED.  GIVEN THIS...THE 
IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE... INCLUDING THE FIRST EVIDENCE OF A 
DEVELOPING EYE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL THE 
EXPLICIT GUIDANCE IN CALLING FOR MICHELLE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE 
STATUS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC BUT AVERAGES TO 360/3.  GUIDANCE IS IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW N TO NNW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 
HOURS.  BEYOND THAT...THE UKMET HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE 
SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD AND THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.  THE AVN HAS BEEN 
EVEN MORE CONSISTENT IN TURNING MICHELLE SHARPLY EASTWARD ACROSS 
CENTRAL CUBA.  THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEARS 
TO LIE IN THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORECAST 
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE UKMET 
HAS A SHARPER TROUGH WITH WEAKER WESTERLIES...WHILE THE AVN 
FORECASTS A FLATTER PATTERN WITH STRONGER FLOW.  THE DIFFERENCE IS 
SUBTLE AND THERE IS NO SOLID BASIS YET FOR FAVORING ONE OVER THE 
OTHER...YET IT COULD MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD FOR THE 
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF MICHELLE ON SOUTH FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FALLS 
IN BETWEEN THE TWO OPTIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/1500Z 17.9N  83.9W    65 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.5N  84.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z 19.6N  84.1W    90 KTS
36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.7N  84.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.5N  83.5W    95 KTS
72HR VT     05/1200Z 23.5N  81.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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