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TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI NOV 02 2001

MICHELLE SHOWS AN IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -85C TO -90C DEVELOPING
NEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT...65 KT...AND 55 KT FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT MONITORING THE STORM RECENTLY REPORTED AN
EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 982 MB...WHICH IS ADJUSTED TO
985 MB FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 
EXTRAPOLATED AND DROPSONDE VALUES FROM THE PREVIOUS FIX.  HOWEVER...
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE ONLY 62 KT...AND 
DROPSONDES IN THE WIND MAXIMA DO NOT INDICATE HURRICANE-FORCE
SURFACE WINDS.  SO...MICHELLE WILL BE A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER ERRATIC 345/3...AND THIS MAY BE
GENEROUS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET
SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF MICHELLE...WHILE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO
THE NORTH OF THE STORM.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN
SHOULD PERSIST FOR 36-48 HR...AND NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THAT
TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THINGS
GET MORE COMPLEX AFTER 48 HR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL WEAKEN THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE AND FORCE IT SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING
MICHELLE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD.  THE UKMET BRINGS THE
FARTHEST TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE AVN-BASED GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE GFDL...IS FARTHER TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND MOVE MICHELLE TO WESTERN
CUBA BY 72 HR.
 
WHILE THERE STILL MAY BE A LITTLE SHEAR OVER MICHELLE...THE OUTFLOW
IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING
ELSEWHERE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST
36 HR.  MICHELLE COULD INTENSIFY FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF
IT CAN DEVELOP A BETTER-ORGANIZED CENTRAL CORE.  AFTER 36 HR...
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY THE WESTERLIES...WHICH
COULD EXPOSE MICHELLE TO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR.  THIS IS MOST EVIDENT
IN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH CAPS THE INTENSITY AT 80 KT IN 36 HR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR MICHELLE TO REACH 95 KT IN
48 HR...BASED ON THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
THE FORECAST SHEAR CAN STOP IT.
 
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTER OF MICHELLE
WILL PASS OVER OR CLOSE TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ALL
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 17.6N  83.9W    60 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.3N  84.1W    70 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.2N  84.2W    80 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.2N  84.2W    90 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 21.3N  83.9W    95 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 23.0N  82.0W    95 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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