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TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU NOV 01 2001
 
SPECIAL NOTE...WE HAVE JUST BEEN NOTIFIED THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF 
CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA...AND THIS 
INFORMATION WILL BE REFLECTED IN CORRECTED PUBLIC AND 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED MOMENTARILY.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS...FROM 850 MB...OF 55 KT...WITH A PEAK VISUAL SURFACE ESTIMATE
OF 50 KT.  COLLECTIVELY...THESE WINDS DO NOT REALLY SUPPORT THE
INTENSITY THAT WE HAD IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE INTENSITY IS
BEING LOWERED TO A PERHAPS STILL GENEROUS 55 KT.  THE LAST FIX
PRESSURE WAS 989 MB...BUT THIS WAS EXTRAPOLATED AND THEIR
EXTRAPOLATIONS HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 2 MB LOW...SO THE ADVISORY
PRESSURE IS 991 MB.  SINCE THE PRESSURE IS STILL FALLING...ABOUT 6
MB IN 12 HOURS...THE DECREASE IN ADVISORY WINDS SHOULD NOT BE
CONSTRUED AS A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND.

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT MICHELLE HAS
MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONTINUING ITS PATTERN OF
MOVING IN FITS AND STARTS.  THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE MOTION...
HOWEVER...IS 330/4.  MICHELLE IS MOVING BETWEEN MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND A HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE AVN AND THE UKMET GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE
DRIVEN SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A LARGE CUTOFF DIGS SOUTHWARD
EAST OF BERMUDA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THIS COMBINES WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO TURN MICHELLE TO THE RIGHT NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH A BIT SLOWER...AND IS A LITTLE 
NORTH OF THE AVN.

BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS NOT YET CLEAR HOW SHARP A TURN
MICHELLE WILL MAKE.  THE AVN TURNS MICHELLE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS MORE OF A THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA.  THE
GFDL LIES IN BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS.  IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO TELL 
WHICH OF THESE OPTIONS...IF ANY...WILL VERIFY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 17.0N  83.8W    55 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 17.6N  84.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.4N  84.6W    75 KTS
36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.4N  84.7W    80 KTS
48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  84.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N  83.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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