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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED OCT 31 2001

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN IS NOW OVER THE WATER JUST
OFFSHORE FROM CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.  PRELIMINARY AIRCRAFT DATA
APPEARS TO LOCATE THE CENTER IN A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS JUST EAST
OF CABO GRACIAS.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE
IS ROTATING AROUND A BROAD CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THAT CENTER
IS THE ADVISORY POSITION.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED
SO FAR BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 42 KT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002
MB.  THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION PENDING MORE
AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/5.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO STEERS THE CYCLONE
IN A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.  NHC HURRICANE
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN 6 HR AGO...WITH THE NOGAPS...
UKMET...LBAR...AND VICBAR TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A
MORE NORTHERLY MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION SIMILAR BUT JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM RE-ORGANIZES ITSELF.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND
WHILE THE CONVECTION IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL ORGANIZED THERE ARE
TOPS TO -80C NOT FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THUS...THE SYSTEM
SHOULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12 HR AND 
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HR.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE
COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS INDICATED BY
THE GFDL MODEL. 

THE GREATEST CONCERN CURRENTLY CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE FLOODING
THAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS CYCLONE. 

THERE CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL TRACK
FORECASTS AFTER 72 HR...THEREFORE IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE IF
ANY PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE THREATENED BY THIS SYSTEM.
STAY TUNED.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/2100Z 15.3N  83.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 16.0N  83.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 16.9N  83.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     02/0600Z 17.9N  84.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     02/1800Z 18.8N  84.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     03/1800Z 21.0N  85.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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