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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED OCT 31 2001

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE OVER NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST INLAND ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.
THE SURFACE DATA SUGGESTS THE PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 1004 MB...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  MORE DETAILED DATA ON THE
POSITION AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY WHEN AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS INDICATE THIS PATTERN SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48-
72 HR...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG A SLOW NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST TRACK.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AROUND A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS SHOWING GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND THE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS TOPS TO -80C.  BASED ON
THIS...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
SHORTLY AFTER THE CENTER REACHES THE WATER.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
TAKES THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE GREATEST CONCERN CURRENTLY CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE FLOODING
THAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEPRESSION.  THIS UNDERSCORES THE POINT THAT
TROPICAL CYCLONES DO NOT NEED TO HAVE STRONG WINDS TO BE DANGEROUS.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST
THROUGH 72 HR...THERE IS SERIOUS DISAGREEMENT AFTER THAT TIME.
IT IS THEREFORE TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE IF ANY PORTION OF THE UNITED
STATES WILL BE THREATENED BY THIS SYSTEM.  STAY TUNED.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/1500Z 14.9N  83.6W    30 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     01/0000Z 15.6N  83.8W    35 KTS...OVER WATER
24HR VT     01/1200Z 16.4N  84.1W    40 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 17.3N  84.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     02/1200Z 18.3N  84.9W    50 KTS
72HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N  85.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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