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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE OCT 30 2001

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN IS NOW OVER THE COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF PUERTO
CABEZAS...SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER HAS PERHAPS RE-FORMED.  THE
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED...
ALTHOUGH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CENTER AND A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS A TEMPORARY
CONDITION.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WHILE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF THE CYCLONE.  THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD
EVENTUALLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH OBVIOUSLY IT HAS
BEEN RATHER RELUCTANT TO MOVE THAT WAY SO FAR.  NHC HURRICANE
GUIDANCE IS SPREAD BETWEEN A NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD MOTION AT
VARIOUS SPEEDS.  THE AVN...BAMM...AND BAMS TRACK THE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET...LBAR...AND VICBAR CALL FOR A NORTHWEST
MOTION.  THE GFDL NOGAPS...BAMD...AND GUNS MODELS CALL FOR A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THAT IS WHAT IS
FOLLOWED IN THIS FORECAST.  THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE RE-LOCATION AND AN EXPECTED
SLOWER MOTION EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH SHOULD OCCUR WHILE THE CENTER CROSSES
NORTHEASTER NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.  ONCE THE CENTER GETS
CLEAR OF LAND...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
AS A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN.  THE NEW FORECAST AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL DATA INDICATE
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...
WHICH IF THINGS VERIFY COULD ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FOR NOW...THE BIGGEST DANGER OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOODING/MUD
SLIDES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/2100Z 12.9N  83.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     31/0600Z 13.7N  83.6W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     31/1800Z 14.7N  83.8W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     01/0600Z 15.9N  84.1W    35 KTS...OVER WATER
48HR VT     01/1800Z 17.2N  84.4W    45 KTS
72HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N  84.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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