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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE OCT 30 2001

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN IS OVER LAND...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED BAND PATTERN STARTING
60-75 NM FROM THE CENTER.  SINCE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND...THERE
ARE NO DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL 
REMAIN 30 KT BASED ON THE GOOD OVERALL APPEARANCE.

FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...AND SHOULD LATER IMAGERY CONFIRM THIS
IT MAY NEED TO BE RE-LOCATED ON THE NEXT PACKAGE.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS SLOW PRESSURE FALLS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO BEGIN A
SLOW NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND IF
THE CENTER WERE OVER WATER IT WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM.  LITTLE CHANGE IS STRENGTH IS LIKELY WHILE THE
CENTER IS OVER LAND.  CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTH WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A 
TROPICAL STORM AT THAT TIME.  AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES
RATHER UNCERTAIN DUE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE
POSITION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TROUGH...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES
RANGING FROM INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE TO ARRESTED
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND CALL FOR CONTINUED SLOW
INTENSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL STORM.
 
FOR NOW...THE BIGGEST DANGER OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOODING/MUD
SLIDES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 13.9N  84.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     31/0000Z 14.7N  84.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     31/1200Z 15.9N  85.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     01/0000Z 16.9N  85.2W    35 KTS...OVER WATER
48HR VT     01/1200Z 18.0N  85.4W    40 KTS
72HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N  85.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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