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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON OCT 29 2001

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE DEPRESSION THIS EVENING.  
HOWEVER...A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND JUST 
NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WHICH MAY BE A SIGN THAT THIS SYSTEM 
IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS QUITE 
IMPRESSIVE WITH OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND ALSO TO THE 
SOUTHWEST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/04...BUT THIS MAY BE MORE DUE TO 
REFORMATION OF THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN...BUT A GENERAL 
NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT SEEMS IN ORDER GIVEN THE LARGE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL 
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET 
MODEL WHICH KEEPS THE DEPRESSION AS A WEAK SYSTEM AND STEERED MORE 
BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  THE AVN AND GFDL MODELS TAKE 
CYCLONE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN NORTHWARD 
AFTER THAT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHT TO THE RIGHT OF THE 
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN MODEL TRACK.  NOTE...BEYOND 
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
THIS SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND 
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS OVER
LAND. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION ON THE WEST SIDE MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO TIGHTEN UP THE 
INNER-CORE CIRCULATION. THIS WOULD AID THE INTENSIFCTAION PROCESS BY 
36 HOURS WHEN THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE 
WARM WATER OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STEADY STRENGTHENING 
COULD OCCUR BY 48 HOURS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CURRENT AND FORECAST 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN... AND IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS 
SYSTEM COULD BE A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 13.9N  83.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     30/1200Z 14.6N  83.8W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     31/0000Z 15.6N  84.2W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     31/1200Z 16.6N  84.9W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     01/0000Z 18.0N  85.1W    45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N  85.0W    60 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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