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TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE OCT 30 2001
 
NOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LORENZO IS ALIGNED WITH THE
STORM MOTION...THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND A SMALL CDO-LIKE
CONVECTIVE FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE
PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY SINCE
THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONLY PERSISTED FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/23.  LORENZO HAS MADE THE TURN
AND IS NOW RECURVING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT LIES
EAST-WEST ALONG 32N LATITUDE.  THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL CLOUD
BAND AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CATCH UP WITH
LORENZO AND ABSORB THE SYSTEM IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  UNTIL THEN...
STEADY ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE GFDL-AVN
MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LORENZO IS
ABSORBED BY FRONTAL TROUGH.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT LORENZO CLOUD BRIEFLY REACH 40 KT INTENSITY BEFORE
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR KICKS IN AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0300Z 35.9N  44.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     31/1200Z 39.6N  42.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 45.3N  38.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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