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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON OCT 29 2001
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MAINTAINING CONVECTION IN ITS NORTH-EAST QUADRANT 
THIS MORNING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 25 
KT...BUT SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE IN THE 30 TO 35 KT 
RANGE.

THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.  THE RECENT EXPANSION OF THE CIRRUS TO THE
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION MAY INDICATE THAT THIS IS ALREADLY
BEGINNING.  THUS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY
RECURVATURE...IS EXPECTED.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL
CLUSTERED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN.

THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING TO A 
TROPICAL STORM.  ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN TO THE NORTH THE 
SHEAR MAY LESSEN TEMPORARILY.  GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY A 
STORM ALREADY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONCURS.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE 
ACCELERATING CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 28.0N  43.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 28.4N  45.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 30.0N  46.1W    40 KTS
36HR VT     31/0000Z 32.7N  45.4W    45 KTS
48HR VT     31/1200Z 36.5N  43.0W    40 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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