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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT OCT 27 2001

DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN RE-FORMED TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO A CLUSTER OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER TO SHEARED
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE RE-FORMATION MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION A BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH THE
BEST ESTIMATE OF 280/5.  OTHER THAN THE RE-FORMATION...THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE DEPRESSION IS
SOUTH OF A BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD MOVE IT IN A
GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION FOR 36-48 HR.  AFTER THAT...A
DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD
TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD.  MOST NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES
WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH LBAR AND NHC98 ARE SLOWER THAN THE
REST OF THE MODELS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS FOR THE NEW INITIAL POSITION.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY.  THE DEPRESSION IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE WIND DATA
FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER TO THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THE 40-50 KT UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS FORECAST BY THE AVN AND THE UKMET FOR RIGHT NOW ARE
TOO STRONG.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH/SHEAR
AXIS...WITH ANOTHER LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION
BY 48 HR.  THIS MIGHT REDUCE THE SHEAR...BUT ALSO MAY WREAK HAVOC
ON THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE.  IN SPITE OF ALL THE APPARENT NEGATIVES...
THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BOTH STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM TO NEAR
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HR.  GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
KEEP THE SLOW STRENGTHENING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...
THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 27.7N  36.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 27.8N  37.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 28.0N  38.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 28.2N  40.8W    40 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 28.8N  42.9W    45 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 31.0N  45.0W    50 KTS
 
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