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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2001
 
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS SHOWN PERSISTENT
CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 24 HR.  WHILE THE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE
FULLY TROPICAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO
THE SOUTH...TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT AND
25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THUS THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING WESTWARD.  THE TRACK FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...AND THIS SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE SHORT TERM.  IN THE LONG TERM...
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD. 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LBAR...WHICH FOR SOME REASON MOVES THE 
DEPRESSION SOUTHEASTWARD...NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE 
GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ANYTHING BUT STRAIGHT FORWARD.  THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING GOOD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW OVER
THE WESTERN QUADRANT AND RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX TROUGH/
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR OVER
THE DEPRESSION.  THE AVN AND UKMET FORECAST AN UNFAVORABLE 40-50 KT
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE NOGAPS FORECASTS A MORE
FAVORABLE 20-25 KT.  COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS THAT MODEL
FORECASTS FOR 12Z DO NOT MATCH THE OUTFLOW CLOUD MOTIONS THAT
WELL...AND THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD
MODIFY THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM.  THE LOW CONFIDENCE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN THAT CALLED FOR BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 27.0N  34.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 27.1N  35.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 27.2N  36.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 27.4N  38.6W    40 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 27.7N  40.8W    45 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 30.0N  44.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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