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TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2001

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND THE CYCLONES 
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 50 KNOTS. KAREN 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE COLDER WATERS...AND LOSE ITS 
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER REACHING NOVA SCOTIA.  IN 48 
HOURS...OR SOONER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LARGER 
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY.

ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION...360/10...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATES A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD 
THE RIGHT WITH ACCELERATION...AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
THAT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL 
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO 
THE AVN GUIDANCE.

THE WIND AND SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 00Z SHIP AND 
BUOY OBSERVATIONS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 41.4N  64.4W    50 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 43.7N  64.1W    45 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 48.0N  62.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     16/1200Z 51.5N  58.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     17/0000Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED
 
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