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TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2001
 
KAREN CONTINUES THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  ALSO...THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE 
LANDFALL ON THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME.  
SATELLITE T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW HURRICANE 
STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 55 KTS.  
 
KAREN HAS JOGGED BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND RUINED A PERFECTLY GOOD 
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  I BELIEVE THE MODELS HAVE 
GOTTEN IT CORRECT AND THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE 
SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD OVER 
NOVA SCOTIA AND LATER OVER LABRADOR.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 40.8N  64.2W    55 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 42.7N  64.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 46.6N  63.3W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     16/0600Z 52.1N  59.8W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

 
 
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