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HURRICANE KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2001

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A SOLID RING OF 
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE EYE AND TOPS HAVE COOLED.  AS 
SUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT AND THIS IS 
SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 70 KT FROM BOTH 
TAFB AND SAB.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/08.  KAREN HAS BEEN MOVING 
SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE DEEP LONGWAVE 
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD...WHICH 
IS HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE U.S. EAST 
COAST.  THE SUBSEQUENT RIDGING HAS CAUSED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST 
WEST OF KAREN TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED.  
THIS IS CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BACK AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY 
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK IN 
THE SHORT TERM. BY 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
FORECASTING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE U.S. EAST COAST AND 
ALSO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.  THIS SHOULD HELP KAREN TO ACCELERATE 
NORTHWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD THE 
NORTHEAST AND CROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA AND WESTERN 
NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVN-NOGAPS MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS 
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
 
KAREN HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD 
BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO TRACK 
OVER MUCH COOLER WATER THAT LIES JUST NORTH OF 39N LATITUDE.  KAREN 
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST CANADA IN 36 HOURS AND BECOME COMPLETELY 
ABSORBED BY THE LOW IN ABOUT 72 TO 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 39.1N  63.6W    70 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 40.4N  63.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 42.6N  63.2W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     15/1800Z 45.3N  62.7W    50 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     16/0600Z 48.0N  59.0W    40 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     17/0600Z 51.5N  54.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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