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HURRICANE KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2001
 
DVORAK TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
NOW AT 65 KTS...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THIS MAKES 
KAREN THE SIXTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE THIS SEASON.  THE SHIPS MODEL 
MAINTAINS KAREN AS A HURRICANE FOR 12 HOURS AND THEN BEGINS THE 
WEAKENING PROCESS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ADJUSTED TO 005/9.  IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM 
IS SLOWING DOWN AS SUGGESTED BY THE AVN...THE NOGAPS AND THE GFDL 
MODELS...NOT ACCELERATING AS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE 
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO ACCELERATE KAREN 
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST HAS WEAKENED AND WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON 
THE SYSTEM. THE GLOBAL MODELS WAIT FOR THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH WHICH 
WILL ACCELERATE KAREN OVER THE MARITIME PROVINCES.  THE OFFICIAL 
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR IN DIRECTION TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT 
THE FORWARD SPEEDS ARE SLOWER AND IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS 
MENTIONED ABOVE.
 
THE 12 FOOT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED BASED UPON SHIP OBSERVATIONS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 37.6N  64.6W    65 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 38.5N  64.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 39.7N  64.4W    60 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 40.9N  64.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 42.0N  64.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 45.0N  62.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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