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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 06 2001
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH ENOUGH CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN IS
AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION. SO A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR TWO. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL REACH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION. THEREFORE...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS
INDICATED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED SOON.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 11.2N 51.1W 25 KTS
12HR VT 07/0000Z 12.0N 53.0W 35 KTS
24HR VT 07/1200Z 12.5N 55.5W 40 KTS
36HR VT 08/0000Z 13.5N 58.5W 45 KTS
48HR VT 08/1200Z 14.0N 60.5W 50 KTS
72HR VT 09/1200Z 15.0N 63.0W 60 KTS
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