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TROPICAL STORM IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2001
THE CENTER CONTINUES MOVING OVER LAND AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT IRIS
HAS WEAKENED TO MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH BY NOW. IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THE SMALL INNER CORE WILL BE LARGELY DESTROYED BY THE RUGGED TERRAIN
OF GUATEMALA AND EASTERN MEXICO...WHERE ELEVATIONS RANGE FROM ABOUT
5000 TO 10000 FEET. THEREFORE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SHOWN AS
DISSIPATING IN 12 HOURS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE...AND REGENERATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.
INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST...
260/18...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.
BECAUSE OF THE FAIRLY FAST FORWARD SPEED...THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE BEEN DECREASED. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF
INLAND FLOODING IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRIS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 16.0N 90.8W 35 KTS
12HR VT 09/1800Z 15.8N 93.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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