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HURRICANE IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17.  WITH A STRONG RIDGE HOLDING TO THE
NORTH...THE GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED BETWEEN WEST AND
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE GFDL AND AVIATION MODELS ARE THE LEFT-MOST
MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.
 
A NOAA AIRCRAFT WAS IN THE HURRICANE TONIGHT.  THE HIGHEST
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED WAS 82 KNOTS JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE
LATEST CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 990 MB.  A CLOSED CIRCULAR
EYEWALL HAD A 13 MILE DIAMETER.  A GPS DROPSONDE INDICATED RATHER 
STRONG WINDS IN THE NORTH EYEWALL AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 
INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.  THE DROPSONDE DATA SUPPORTS A SURFACE WIND 
OF 90+ KNOTS...BUT THE PRESSURE IS A LITTLE HIGH TO INCREASE THE 
WIND THAT MUCH.  THE FORECAST IS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 90 KNOTS 
BEFORE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA OR MEXICO.  THIS IS ABOUT WHAT 
THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL ARE SHOWING WITH AN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT 
VERTICAL SHEAR AND PLENTY OF OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.  THE LATEST 
INFRARED IMAGERY LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A SMALL COLD CDO AND A 
COLD CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
BELIZE IS POSTING A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THEIR COAST SINCE THE
FORECAST TRACK IS RIGHT OVER THEM.  MEXICO AND HONDURAS ARE WAITING
A LITTLE LONGER.  A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD WEST-SOUTHWEST...AS FORECAST
BY THE AVIATION MODEL...AND HONDURAS OR EVEN GUATEMALA COULD BECOME 
THE MOST THREATENED AREA.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 17.3N  81.3W    80 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 17.4N  83.7W    85 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 17.4N  86.7W    90 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 17.3N  89.8W    45 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     10/0000Z 17.2N  93.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     11/0000Z 17.0N  97.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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