HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001
 
IRIS IS A TINY HURRICANE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIMITED TO A VERY
SMALL AREA SURROUNDING A 12 N MI EYE.  THE ONLY REPORT RECEIVED SO
FAR FROM THE NOAA PLANE IS NORTHWEST OF WIND OF 75 KNOTS AT FLIGHT
LEVEL...  SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 990 MB
AND THEN 991 MB.  FOR A WESTWARD MOVING HURRICANE...WINDS MUST THEN
BE STRONGER ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 75 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. DURING THE NEXT 
24 TO 36 HOUR...IRIS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN 
WHERE THE UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH.  THIS...IN
COMBINATION WITH LOW SHEAR...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STRENGTHENING.  HISTORICALLY...A LARGE NUMBER OF HURRICANES
HAVE BECOME MAJOR HURRICANES IN THIS REGION.

IRIS IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGE.
THEREFORE A WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST.  IRIS COULD EVEN MOVE SOUTH
OF DUE WEST AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS.
 
IRIS COULD REACH EASTERN YUCATAN OR NORTHERN BELIZE AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOUR OR LESS. IT SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INLAND OVER LAND.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IRIS MAY 
MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...A TROPICAL STORM 
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF 
HONDURAS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 17.3N  79.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 17.5N  82.0W    85 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 18.0N  85.5W    90 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N  88.5W    65 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     09/1800Z 18.0N  91.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     10/1800Z 18.0N  96.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
NNNN