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HURRICANE IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 06 2001
 
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING IRIS AND FOUND A 
CLOSED EYEWALL...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 992 MB AND PEAK WINDS OF 82 
KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. BASED ON THESE REPORTS...IRIS IS BEING 
UPGRADED TO A 65-KNOT HURRICANE. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WELL 
ESTABLISHED AND THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT FOR STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE 
THE INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN.  ONCE IRIS 
MOVES BY JAMAICA AND ENTERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IT COULD 
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED.

FIXES FROM THE RECON PLANE INDICATE THAT IRIS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 
15 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING ON A TRACK 
BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 
THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... 
FORCING IRIS ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
AS INDICATED BY ALL AVAILABLE MODELS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 17.0N  73.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.6N  75.1W    75 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.5N  78.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.5N  81.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 19.5N  83.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 19.5N  87.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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