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TROPICAL STORM IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 06 2001
 
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN 
ASSOCIATED WITH IRIS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER REPORTED 998 MB  
AND NO CHANGE IN THE MAXIMUM WINDS. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 
KNOTS.  HOWEVER THE PLANE REPORTED A CLOSED WALL OF 20 N MI WITH A 
STADIUM EFFECT.  THE CIRCULATION OF IRIS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH 
THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...LIMITING THE STRENGTHENING.  THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BECOME 
MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. 
  
IRIS IS MOVING 290 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AND THE STEERING PATTERN 
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 
THEREFORE...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...SO 
IRIS COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY 
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL 
MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 16.7N  71.2W    55 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N  73.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 18.5N  76.5W    70 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 19.0N  79.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 19.5N  82.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 20.0N  86.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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