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TROPICAL STORM IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2001
 
FINALLY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATION REACHED THE SURFACE.  A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST REPORTED A CENTER OF 1004 MB WITH FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 64 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
BE LOW AND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  IRIS IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

IRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 15 KNOTS. THE 
STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A 
TRACK BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM EARLIER 
RUNS AND BRING IRIS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THE LONGER RANGE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 15.8N  66.8W    50 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 16.6N  69.1W    60 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 17.2N  72.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 18.0N  75.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 18.5N  78.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 19.5N  82.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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