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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 05 2001
 
THERE MAY NOT BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AS INDICATED 
PREVIOUSLY...BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE 
WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND 
GOOD OUTFLOW. IN FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER... 
THE SYSTEM IS KEPT AS A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME 
UNTIL AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES THE AREA THIS 
AFTERNOON. THE RECON WILL DETERMINE THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM 
AND IT MAY FIND A TROPICAL WAVE...A DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM.  

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 
EFFECTS OF LAND AND THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME 
STRENGTHENING. 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS.  A 
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A TRACK BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST 
AND WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST 
OF THE MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THE 
LONGER RANGE. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 14.5N  64.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 15.3N  67.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 16.3N  70.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N  72.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     07/1200Z 17.5N  75.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     08/1200Z 18.5N  79.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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