ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI OCT 05 2001 CONVECTION HAS MARKED INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...WHETHER THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY HAS A LOW LEVEL CENTER IS STILL IN DOUBT DUE TO OBSCURING OF THE LOW CLOUDS THAT MIGHT DEFINE IT. THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CLOUD MASS NEAR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION UNTIL EITHER FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY OR A RECON FLIGHT LATER TODAY INDICATE OTHERWISE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/15. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND LARGE- SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BASICALLY BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE NEW TRACK IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE IDEA THAT IF THE CYCLONE ORGANIZES IT SHOULD GET STEERED A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE CYCLONE BETWEEN THE WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STRETCHING OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT IS UNDERWAY. WHAT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON IS HOW STRONG THAT FLOW WILL BE. THE AVN AND THE NOGAPS SHOW A RATHER UNFAVORABLE 30-50 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT 36 HR...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS 25-40 KT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND MORE FAVORABLE WINDS NEAR THE FORECAST TRACK. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CENTER IS IN RELATION TO THE STRONGEST FLOW...THE POSSIBILITIES RANGE FROM THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST OF HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR TO DISSIPATION. THE GDFL IS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...AS IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES BEYOND 48 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 14.0N 63.5W 30 KTS 12HR VT 05/1800Z 14.9N 65.7W 30 KTS 24HR VT 06/0600Z 16.0N 68.2W 35 KTS 36HR VT 06/1800Z 16.9N 70.7W 45 KTS 48HR VT 07/0600Z 17.5N 73.2W 50 KTS 72HR VT 08/0600Z 18.5N 77.5W 55 KTS NNNN