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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2001

ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ARE INITIATED BASED ON DATA
FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
REGION.  THE CREW REPORTED A POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER OF CIRCULATION
WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1010 MB.  HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A CLOUD PATERN MUCH BETTER
DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW.  AS USUAL...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  THE UPPER LOW AHEAD OF THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD PROVIDING AN
ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE
SHIPS MODEL MAKES THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE BUT THE AVN GLOBAL
MODEL...WHICH HAS DEMOSNTRATED SKILLS IN INTENSITY TRENDS...WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM.  IN ADDITION...CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING
IS NOT A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  BASED
ON THE CURRENT INFORMATION AND THE MIXED SIGNALS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY A SLOW STRENGHTENING.  ALTERNATIVELY...THE
DEPRESSION MIGHT BECOME A TROPICAL WAVE AGAIN IF IT CONTINUES MOVING
FAST.

THE DEPRESION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A WELL DEFINED ESTABLISHED RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE. IT APPEARS THAT IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE  
SURVIVES....IT WILL MOVE WEST OR WESTNORTHWEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  

FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 13.1N  60.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 14.0N  63.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 15.0N  66.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 16.0N  68.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     06/1800Z 17.0N  71.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     07/1800Z 18.0N  75.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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