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TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2001

HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE SHARP SST GRADIENT WITH 
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE STORM STILL HAS ENOUGH 
CONVECTION FOR THE INTENSITY TO BE HELD AT 60 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  
HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECTS OF STRONG 
SHEAR AND LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A DAY OR SO.  THE 
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORWARD MOTION HAS ACCELERATED TO ABOUT 28 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST 
MAINTAINS AN EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHTLY 
FASTER FORWARD SPEED...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD 
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  HUMBERTO 
SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THIS CIRCULATION SOON.

THE 12 FOOT SEAS RADIUS HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A SHIP REPORT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/FORMOSA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 42.0N  45.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 41.5N  40.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 41.0N  33.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     29/0000Z 41.0N  25.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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