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TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2001
HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE SHARP SST GRADIENT WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE STORM STILL HAS ENOUGH
CONVECTION FOR THE INTENSITY TO BE HELD AT 60 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECTS OF STRONG
SHEAR AND LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A DAY OR SO. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORWARD MOTION HAS ACCELERATED TO ABOUT 28 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST
MAINTAINS AN EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHTLY
FASTER FORWARD SPEED...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HUMBERTO
SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THIS CIRCULATION SOON.
THE 12 FOOT SEAS RADIUS HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A SHIP REPORT.
FORECASTER PASCH/FORMOSA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/1500Z 42.0N 45.7W 60 KTS
12HR VT 28/0000Z 41.5N 40.5W 50 KTS
24HR VT 28/1200Z 41.0N 33.0W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 29/0000Z 41.0N 25.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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