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HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2001

HUMBERTO IS PAST ITS PRIME.  LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE
IS ON A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND.  THE EYE IS BECOMING
INDISTINCT...AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS BECOMING
ASYMMETRICAL...WITH MOST OF THE COLD-TOPPED CLOUDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE HURRICANE IS PROBABLY BEGINNING TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS AND STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING AT A FAIRLY RAPID RATE
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING INTO A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.

THE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING...NOW ABOUT 13 KT.  THERE
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  HUMBERTO
SHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP
GLOBAL...AVN...MODEL GUIDANCE.  HUMBERTO SHOULD BE MAKING THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY OR SO AND BY 72 HOURS...BECOME
ABSORBED BY A LARGE HIGH-LATITUDE CYCLONE.

FORECASTER PASCH/FORMOSA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 42.1N  56.8W    80 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 42.5N  53.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 42.5N  46.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 42.0N  38.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     28/1800Z 41.5N  30.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     29/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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