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HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2001

HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INTERMITTENT EYE OCCASIONALLY
SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  THE MAXIMUM
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 65 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
HUMBERTO IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
WHICH IS BOTH SHELTERING IT FROM SHEAR AND KEEPING THE MOTION SLOW.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
IMPINGE ON THE STORM IN THE NEXT 24-48 HR...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A
FASTER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD MOTION.  NHC HURRICANE
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS HUMBERTO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 48-72
HR...AND SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE THE TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT IN LATER PACKAGES.
 
HUMBERTO IS OVER THE STRONG SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH
OF THE GULF STREAM AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO COLDER
WATER.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 48
HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 39.9N  60.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 40.8N  58.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 41.5N  55.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 42.0N  52.0W    40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     28/0000Z 42.5N  46.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     29/0000Z 42.5N  35.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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