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HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2001
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO BE WELL
ORGANIZED WITH AN INTERMITTENT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BUT MAY BE A
LITTLE BIT HIGHER.  HUMBERTO SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER COOL WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HUMBERTO IS NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EMBEDDED IN LIGHT STEERING
FLOW.  SO...A GENERAL NORTHEAST TRACK...ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE STEERING 
FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE CAUSING HUMBERTO TO ACCELERATE 
EASTWARD.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 39.5N  61.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 40.5N  59.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 41.5N  57.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 41.5N  53.0W    40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     27/1800Z 42.0N  48.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     28/1800Z 42.5N  37.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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