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HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2001
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT HUMBERTO STILL HAS
AN EYE LIKE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS BUT MAY BE HIGHER AND IF THE
EYE PERSISTS...WINDS WILL BE ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT UPWARD.  DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 55 AND 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  HUMBERTO SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
HUMBERTO IS NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EMBEDDED IN LIGHT STEERING
FLOW.  SO...A GENERAL NORTHEAST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE STEERING FLOW AND HUMBERTO
SHOULD ACCELERATE EASTWARD.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 38.9N  61.9W    65 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 40.0N  60.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 41.0N  57.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 42.0N  53.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 42.5N  49.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     28/1200Z 42.5N  39.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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