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HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2001
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO MORE RECONNAISSANCE COVERAGE OF HUMBERTO...AND NOT 
MUCH SATELLITE COVERAGE EITHER BECAUSE OF THE ECLIPSE PERIOD...SO 
THIS PACKAGE LARGELY ECHOES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  FIRST IMAGES OUT 
OF ECLIPSE INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OR MOTION.  
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 TO 65 KT...SO WE WILL KEEP 
HUMBERTO A HURRICANE FOR NOW.  WATER TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY 
IN ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST JUST A LITTLE 
FASTER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

HUMBERTO CONTINUES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE.  
DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION LAST NIGHT SUGGESTS THAT HUMBERTO 
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF ANY STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AND SO NOT 
MUCH ACCELERATION IS FORECAST UNITL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...INITIALIZED WITH THE DROPSONDE DATA...APPEARS 
TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 38.0N  63.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 39.1N  61.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 40.3N  59.8W    50 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 41.5N  56.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 42.0N  51.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     28/0600Z 42.0N  41.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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