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HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2001
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 75 KNOTS...BUT THERE HAS
BEEN SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE CDO CLOUD TOPS AND THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS REDUCED TO 70 KNOTS.  NOAA RECON IS SCHEDULED TO FLY
TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD GIVE US A BETTER HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR WEAKENING TO 40 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS OVER
SSTS NEAR OR BELOW 20 DEGREE C.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/13.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST IN 72 HOURS.  EXCEPT DURING 
THE FIRST 12 HOURS...THE MOTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD AS 
A LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE 
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE LATEST AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS
A SEPARATE SYSTEM...850 MB VORTICITY CENTER... THROUGH 72 HOURS...
HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER COLD SSTS IN 48
HOURS OR SO.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 36.5N  65.1W    70 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 38.1N  64.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 40.0N  62.6W    60 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 41.5N  59.9W    55 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 42.9N  56.1W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     27/1800Z 43.5N  47.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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