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HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2001
 
LATEST RECON REPORTS INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO IS WEAKENING.  THE 
PRESSURE IS UP TO 989...AND THERE WERE NO FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ANY 
HIGHER THAN 68 KT.  A COUPLE OF EYEWALL DROPSONDES DID NOT SHOW ANY 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
LOWERED TO 80 KT BUT MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SUGGESTS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST 
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR MORE RAPID 
WEAKENING THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/10.  DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV 
SHOW A SOLID BAND OF MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE 
CYCLONE...SO HUMBERTO SHOULD TURN EASTWARD WELL SOUTH OF NOVA 
SCOTIA.  HOWEVER...HUMBERTO SHOULD TURN SHARPLY ENOUGH TO KEEP IT 
OUT OF THE STRONG WESTERLIES...SO LITTLE ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED 
DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.  WITH THE DROPSONDE 
DATA...THE LATEST AVN FORECAST TRACK IS ABOUT 180 NM EAST OF THE 
PREVIOUS RUN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE AVN.

THE WIND RADII IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAD TO BE EXPANDED BASED ON 
THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE DATA.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 34.3N  66.6W    80 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 36.0N  66.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 37.8N  64.5W    70 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 39.5N  62.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 40.5N  60.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 41.5N  53.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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