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TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2001
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KNOTS FROM SAB AND TAFB...WITH 
A PERSISTENT COLD SYMMETRIC CDO FEATURE AND BANDING NORTH THROUGH 
EAST.  AN 11Z SSMI PASS SHOWS A DOUGHNUT EYE FEATURE.  AN AIRCRAFT 
RECON IS SCHEDULED FOR 18Z...SO I WILL INCREASE THE INITIAL WIND 
SPEED TO 60 KNOTS AND WAIT FOR THE AIRCRAFT TO CONFIRM THAT HUMBERTO 
HAS REACHED HURRICANE INTENSITY.  IF RECON WAS NOT SCHEDULED SO 
SOON...I WOULD MAKE HUMBERTO A HURRICANE NOW.  WITH STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL WESTERLIES NEARBY ...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR CONTINUED 
STRENGTHENING IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/9.  THE MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 
MOSTLY NORTHWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE 
NORTHEAST AS HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE AVN...NOGAPS...UKMET AND GFDL 
SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.  THE NOGAPS AND AVN ARE THE LEFTMOST GUIDANCE 
AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD THESE MODELS 
...BRINGING THE CENTER TO NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72 HOURS.

THE CENTER IS NEAR ITS POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA...
150 N MI.  INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 
HUMBERTO UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS SAFELY PAST.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 31.4N  67.8W    60 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 32.7N  68.1W    70 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 34.5N  68.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 36.9N  67.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 39.2N  66.3W    70 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 45.0N  59.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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