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TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS 
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TURNING THE STORM NORTH AND THEN 
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER SOME 250 N MI OFFSHORE 
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO 
THE AVIATION MODEL FORECAST AND CONSERVATIVELY TO THE LEFT OF THE 
GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS.  THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE 
LEFT OF THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE 
INITIAL MOTION IS MORE NORTHWARD THAN MY ESTIMATE.

AN EXCELLENT CDO CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST FEW 
HOURS...WHICH MAY HAVE PEAKED BASED ON THE LAST IMAGE OR TWO.  SINCE 
THERE IS AN AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO FIX THE SYSTEM AT 06Z...I WILL 
LEAVE THE WIND SPEED AT 50 KNOTS UNTIL THE NEW AIRCRAFT DATA IS 
RECEIVED.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE 
STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE FORECAST IS TO 65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.  
THE GFDL AND SHIPS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE BUT THE UKMET AND 
AVIATION MODEL FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED.

A DRIFTING BUOY IS ONLY ABOUT 40 OR SO N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER 
AND REPORTED 25 KNOTS AND 1011.9 MB AT 00Z...SO HUMBERTO IS A
RATHER SMALL STORM. 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 29.6N  67.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 30.5N  68.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 32.1N  68.9W    65 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 33.9N  69.1W    65 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 36.0N  68.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 41.5N  64.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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