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TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2001
 
SATELLITE ESTIMATES THIS MORNING WERE CORRECT.  A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE REACHED THE DEPRESSION AND FOUND 57 KNOTS AT FIGHT LEVEL WITH
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 5O KNOTS.
THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
HUMBERTO.  THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD REPORTED A WELL DEFINED AND
TIGHT SURFACE CENTER...A LITTLE BIT DISPLACED FROM THE FLIGHT LEVEL
ONE.  THIS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL POORLY
ORGANIZED.  ALTHOUGH THE WATER IS WARM...HUMBERTO HAS A SMALL WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES IN 24
HOURS OR SO.  SO ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY IN
INTENSIFYING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A STRONG TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS INSIST ON THIS
SOLUTION AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 29.0N  67.0W    50 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 30.0N  68.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 31.0N  68.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 32.5N  69.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 34.5N  69.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 41.5N  67.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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