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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2001

IT IS TEMPTING TO CALL THE DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM BASED ON ITS
APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES
TO BE WELL ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDS AND FAIR OUTFLOW.  IN
FACT...TAFB...SAB AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45
KNOTS.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM LOOKED GOOD ON SATELLITE YESTERDAY AND
THE PLANE COULD NOT FIND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  PERHAPS...THERE IS
A SMALL CENTER UNDER THE CONVECTION WITH STRONGER WINDS.  THE AIR
FORCE PLANE WILL TELL US WHEN IT REACHES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY.

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 30 KNOTS...TO COMPROMISE WITH 
SATELLITE ESTIMATES. SURROUNDING SURFACE DATA AND LOW CLOUD TRACERS 
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL POORLY DEFINED. THE 
SHEAR HAS RELAXED AND THE OCEAN IS WARM SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF 
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AGAIN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. A GRADUAL 
TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
SHOULD BEGIN IN 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A STRONG TROUGH IS EXPECTED 
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE 
U.S. COAST.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK 
MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE AVN AND THE GFDL 
MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 28.2N  66.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 29.2N  67.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 31.0N  68.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 32.5N  69.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 35.0N  69.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 40.0N  67.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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