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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2001
 
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES.
IT IS TEMPTING TO PLACE IT UNDER THE CONVECTION BUT EXTRAPOLATION
FROM THE PREVIOUS POSITION SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
STILL TO THE WEST OF THE ROTATION ALOFT.  THE DECOUPLING BETWEEN THE
LOW-LEVEL AND THE MID-LEVEL CENTERS HAS BEEN A COMMON OCCURRENCE 
THIS SEASON.

THIS DECOUPLING SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED.  IN
FACT...A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN KAKF REPORTED 22 KNOT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND 1011.8 MB VERY NEAR THE CENTER AT 00Z.  HOWEVER...THE
CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE AND BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN CORRESPONDS TO A 35-KNOT TROPICAL
STORM.  AS SOON AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW...IF
IT DOES...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN.

LONG TERM MOTION IS 315/11.  THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY
STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER-LOW.  AS THE LOW WEAKENS...THE
COMBINATION OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A STRONG APPROACHING TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE A NORTHWEST TO NORTH STEERING THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LASTEST AVN AND GFDL RUNS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 27.0N  65.9W    25 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 28.1N  67.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 29.5N  68.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 31.5N  69.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 33.5N  70.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 36.5N  70.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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