ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001 SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KNOTS FOR NOW...BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS GABRIELLE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 1-2 DAYS...AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...045/15...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. GABRIELLE IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY FASTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHING THE SYSTEM...AND THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN ALSO PREDICTS SOME INCREASE IN THE STEERING CURRENT WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE LATEST CENTER FIXES. THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL RUN SHOWS A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NEWFOUNDLAND THAN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE 500 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ZONAL ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE CENTER EAST OF THE ISLAND. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 38.4N 61.0W 55 KTS 12HR VT 18/1800Z 40.0N 58.5W 50 KTS 24HR VT 19/0600Z 42.0N 55.0W 45 KTS 36HR VT 19/1800Z 44.5N 51.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 20/0600Z 47.0N 47.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/0600Z 50.0N 37.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN